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Mark Carney and The Bank of Canada meets next Tuesday, July 19th and of the 37 Economists polled by Reuters, none expect a hike next week at the Bank of Canada’s July 19 rate decision. Of those polled none expect an increase until later in the fall or early 2012.

Adrienne Warren, a senior economist at Bank of Nova Scotia said, “It’s a tough call, but our view is they’re likely to wait until early next year and then gradually raise interest rates at that point.”

Benjamin Tal, economist for CIBC has stated in his most recent Economic Buzz that a Bank of Canada rate increase is unlikely until September. However he believes the overnight rate will likely be .75% higher by year end.

What does this mean for mortgage holders?


If the Bank of Canada holds rates as expected July 19th if you are in a Variable Rate Mortgage your rate will not change. With no change to the overnight rate this should also keep 5yr bond yields and fixed mortgage rates low for the time being so if you are purchasing, refinancing or renewing in the next 90-120 days you will still benefit from some historically low fixed or variable rates.